I think you are overestimating the economic impact of this on conservatives. If you look at the data, graduates in STEM fields are still on the rise, it is only humanities that are having a decrease in graduates. My inference is that the conservatives that are not going to college are not ones that were considering STEM, but conservatives that were planning on going into humanities.
This makes a lot of sense because most people go into humanities programs because they think they would enjoy studying it or were hoping to become tenured professors. But conservatives now rarely enjoy learning humanities in college because the classes are very left leaning. They also assume they will never be able to become tenured professors, due to discrimination. I think it is completely rational for a conservative that is interested in humanities to go to trade school instead of getting a degree that will only let them become teachers.
For what it's worth, there are more conservatives in STEM and business than in other fields (see FIRE's survey of college students here: https://x.com/data_depot/status/1761147812023349374) but the disparities are not as large as I expected and my sense is that this has probably always been true.
Quite a few. As Figure 10 shows, roughly half of high school boys with a party preference now identify as Republican (and roughly one-third of high school girls also do). The growing share of high school boys identifying with the right can also be seen in the MTF's measure of ideology (e.g. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4125661-high-school-boys-are-trending-conservative/).
Thanks. Sort of goes against Churchill’s analysis. Don’t remember that many conservatives when I was 17. Is this a long term trend or attributable to seeing Trump as a rebel?
Where did you grow up? My high school was largely pro John McCain, and that is against the much younger, charismatic candidate of Obama. But I lived rurally, and kids were just parroting their parents opinions. Statistically, 71% of 17 year olds have similar political opinions as their parents.
I grew up in the 60s in Michigan. The right was Goldwater and Nixon and the left was the Kennedys. Between that and the I influence of the UAW the right was fighting an uphill battle.
Of course it has. And I grew up in a union town. Just hard to envision that many 17 year old conservatives. What happens as they grow older? Do they get reactionary or become progressives in revolt?
"Forced acceptance" might be too strong of a phrase but my best guess is that the increasingly high-profile displays of campus progressivism (e.g. widely covered instances of deplatforming at elite universities) are making young Republicans see college campuses as unwelcoming and unattractive places for people who share their views.
"Forced acceptance" is too mild of a phrase. Militant destruction of conservatives and their opinions is more accurate. Social osctracism is the least forceful kind of coercion.
Some conservatives will decide to go to college later (as I did). This is okay. They will have learned to resist the propaganda then. Many who don't go to college will still start businesses. They will be somewhat less welcoming of DEI-type policies and activist grads than business has been up until now. And they won't tend to donate to schools they avoided in their youth or to vote for people who want to shower money on institutions of higher radicalization.
In short, the polarization shown in this trend will be playing out for many years to come.
"This demographic is simply too large for colleges to ignore." LOL. You are not listening to them. They would rather shut down the school than tolerate conservatives.
The colleges are not totally the arts and soft sciences. Look at many of the fields within STEM and business. I did Physics and Materials / Mechanical Engineering many decades ago - but my youngest kids did MS degrees in Civil Engineering and Business - MIS within the last decade. These fields are much less ideologically influenced. While daughter did History, she did it at BYU, about 2 decades ago, so she got a different indoctrination - which did not take. And don't look at the private schools, look at doing such degrees at the state universities. If you are concerned about the costs, do an associates first and then transfer to the state university. It is pretty much what my son did. And the salaries are high enough to rapidly pay off student loans.
You are right that the arts, studies programs, and social sciences are not all that universities have to offer. In fact, they constitute a shrinking share of most universities (e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/xc4ckq/oc_fastest_growing_and_shrinking_us_college/). The problem is that the arts, studies, and social sciences have received the bulk of the negative media attention focused on universities over the last decade. It is likely that this attention has discouraged some right-leaning students from attending because they (incorrectly) believe that universities are "totally the arts and soft sciences."
There was an excessive tendency towards softheartedness / empathy even 50 years ago. I did a physics degree and eventually followed that with a Mechanical Engineering Ph.D. My undergrad econ teacher told me that I had an evil mind, and I had a campus reputation of a cross between Spock and Dr. Strangelove. But the hard sciences and engineering are up against the real world - does it work, will the bridge fall down, .. that serve as a corrective against wishfull fuzzymindedness. I actually took a seniour level course in military sociology taught by a retired light colonel - it was not a popular course among the sociology majors. It was quite interesting. Note, the Vietnam war was still active at the time.
I don't care about the campus per se. MIT isn't all engineering and sciences. I have a relative who retired from the Department of Political Science there. Choose your major so that you get appropriate education and skills for which people will hire you.
I think you are overestimating the economic impact of this on conservatives. If you look at the data, graduates in STEM fields are still on the rise, it is only humanities that are having a decrease in graduates. My inference is that the conservatives that are not going to college are not ones that were considering STEM, but conservatives that were planning on going into humanities.
This makes a lot of sense because most people go into humanities programs because they think they would enjoy studying it or were hoping to become tenured professors. But conservatives now rarely enjoy learning humanities in college because the classes are very left leaning. They also assume they will never be able to become tenured professors, due to discrimination. I think it is completely rational for a conservative that is interested in humanities to go to trade school instead of getting a degree that will only let them become teachers.
Good points. Consistent with your idea, is recent reporting on Gen Z becoming the "toolbelt generation." There's been some interesting reporting on this lately by the Wall Street Journal (https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/gen-z-trades-jobs-plumbing-welding-a76b5e43).
For what it's worth, there are more conservatives in STEM and business than in other fields (see FIRE's survey of college students here: https://x.com/data_depot/status/1761147812023349374) but the disparities are not as large as I expected and my sense is that this has probably always been true.
How many 17 year old Republicans are there?
Quite a few. As Figure 10 shows, roughly half of high school boys with a party preference now identify as Republican (and roughly one-third of high school girls also do). The growing share of high school boys identifying with the right can also be seen in the MTF's measure of ideology (e.g. https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4125661-high-school-boys-are-trending-conservative/).
Thanks. Sort of goes against Churchill’s analysis. Don’t remember that many conservatives when I was 17. Is this a long term trend or attributable to seeing Trump as a rebel?
Where did you grow up? My high school was largely pro John McCain, and that is against the much younger, charismatic candidate of Obama. But I lived rurally, and kids were just parroting their parents opinions. Statistically, 71% of 17 year olds have similar political opinions as their parents.
https://news.gallup.com/poll/14515/teens-stay-true-parents-political-perspectives.aspx
I grew up in the 60s in Michigan. The right was Goldwater and Nixon and the left was the Kennedys. Between that and the I influence of the UAW the right was fighting an uphill battle.
You don't suppose the world has changed since you were in high school ?
Of course it has. And I grew up in a union town. Just hard to envision that many 17 year old conservatives. What happens as they grow older? Do they get reactionary or become progressives in revolt?
About 50% according to this article.
Could some of it be a backlash to the forced acceptance of liberal ideology that is now demanded from students?
"Forced acceptance" might be too strong of a phrase but my best guess is that the increasingly high-profile displays of campus progressivism (e.g. widely covered instances of deplatforming at elite universities) are making young Republicans see college campuses as unwelcoming and unattractive places for people who share their views.
"Forced acceptance" is too mild of a phrase. Militant destruction of conservatives and their opinions is more accurate. Social osctracism is the least forceful kind of coercion.
Some conservatives will decide to go to college later (as I did). This is okay. They will have learned to resist the propaganda then. Many who don't go to college will still start businesses. They will be somewhat less welcoming of DEI-type policies and activist grads than business has been up until now. And they won't tend to donate to schools they avoided in their youth or to vote for people who want to shower money on institutions of higher radicalization.
In short, the polarization shown in this trend will be playing out for many years to come.
"This demographic is simply too large for colleges to ignore." LOL. You are not listening to them. They would rather shut down the school than tolerate conservatives.
The colleges are not totally the arts and soft sciences. Look at many of the fields within STEM and business. I did Physics and Materials / Mechanical Engineering many decades ago - but my youngest kids did MS degrees in Civil Engineering and Business - MIS within the last decade. These fields are much less ideologically influenced. While daughter did History, she did it at BYU, about 2 decades ago, so she got a different indoctrination - which did not take. And don't look at the private schools, look at doing such degrees at the state universities. If you are concerned about the costs, do an associates first and then transfer to the state university. It is pretty much what my son did. And the salaries are high enough to rapidly pay off student loans.
You are right that the arts, studies programs, and social sciences are not all that universities have to offer. In fact, they constitute a shrinking share of most universities (e.g. https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/xc4ckq/oc_fastest_growing_and_shrinking_us_college/). The problem is that the arts, studies, and social sciences have received the bulk of the negative media attention focused on universities over the last decade. It is likely that this attention has discouraged some right-leaning students from attending because they (incorrectly) believe that universities are "totally the arts and soft sciences."
There was an excessive tendency towards softheartedness / empathy even 50 years ago. I did a physics degree and eventually followed that with a Mechanical Engineering Ph.D. My undergrad econ teacher told me that I had an evil mind, and I had a campus reputation of a cross between Spock and Dr. Strangelove. But the hard sciences and engineering are up against the real world - does it work, will the bridge fall down, .. that serve as a corrective against wishfull fuzzymindedness. I actually took a seniour level course in military sociology taught by a retired light colonel - it was not a popular course among the sociology majors. It was quite interesting. Note, the Vietnam war was still active at the time.
Spend some time on the MIT campus. They are as woke as anyone.
I don't care about the campus per se. MIT isn't all engineering and sciences. I have a relative who retired from the Department of Political Science there. Choose your major so that you get appropriate education and skills for which people will hire you.
Fair enough.