Conservatives have correctly identified whites and "wokeness" as key components of the military’s recruitment crisis. Unfortunately, they are focusing on the wrong whites and the wrong "wokeness."
Thanks for the excellent breakdown of data on the topic!
There’s only one factor I can think of that you didn’t address, and that’s personnel retention. I think you’re right that the people most likely to join the military (conservative, rural white males) aren’t very aware of various “woke” policies and practices being implemented and so aren’t dissuaded, but that changes drastically when they actually join. A patriotic young man who shows up for basic training expecting an intensely masculine training environment only to be met with scolding lectures on “white privilege”, “toxic masculinity” and pronoun policing may be fall less likely to stick around beyond the minimum commitment, especially if it becomes clear that promotions are also being manipulated by DEI policies.
This problem compounds with experience, as individuals who have been in for 10+ years (NCOs, Field-Grade officers) have to decide whether to do a full 20 year career or cut their losses early. If they do leave, even in small absolute numbers, it takes many years and a much larger pool of young recruits to replace them and leads to an even more dire recruitment situation. Anecdotally, this could be a growing problem and would seem to be underway as a result of the disgraceful handling of Afghanistan, DEI ideology, and overbearing COVID policies combined.
I agree with you 100% about the retention problems. This needs to be a part of any discussion of recruitment. I should have added a least a paragraph on this. Thanks for adding it here!
Actually, when I initially started working on this I was imagining a post that evaluated the effect of the Pentagon's "woke" DEI policies on three separate dimensions: recruitment, retention and readiness. I was going to present the argument that "wokeness" likely matters for #2 and #3 but not for #1 (at least not yet). The whole thing became too long so I stopped with the recruitment question but I plan to pick up the retention and readiness questions again soon.
Any future analysis of these problems will also have to account for the fact that a significant percentage of new recruits come from military families. If active duty servicemembers become disaffected with the military, they may advise their children to stay away from the military. "Wokeness" is one factor (and you point out many other factors as well) that may lead current servicemembers to feel this kind of disaffection. To give you just one piece of evidence, in 2021, 65% of military teens (i.e. teenagers from families where at least one parents is currently serving) said they wanted to serve (https://www.militaryfamily.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Military-Teen-Experience-Report-2021.pdf). In 2022, that number was only 44% (https://www.militaryfamily.org/wp-content/uploads/NMFA-2022-A-Snapshot-of-Americas-Military.pdf). Obviously, there's much more to discuss here.
A tremendously insightful article. The idea that beliefs, and how they manifest, impact recruitment is helpful, but on a more basic level, I think the military career is fundamentally at odds with many of the younger generations preferences (work life balance, family, pay-Pew Studies & Moskos (1977) institutional vs occupational models and his work “The Professional Soldier”).
I find this topic very fascinating as it is a manifestation of America and includes both American government and international relations considerations.
The military's WOKE policies have just kicked into high gear with the election of Biden and thus may take a while to show up in the data. But anecdotally, as one who lives in the deep south, each and every current or former military person that I have conversed with has mentioned the DEI policies in a negative light, as in being one of the major reasons why they would never ever join the military if they had it to do over again, and why they would not recommend the military for any white person. These conversations lead me to believe that the military's problems have just begun.
This is not dissimilar to AB attempting to recruit more woke customers who have moved to craft beers anyway and wouldn't come back to a mass produced beer no matter how pretty the transitioned person on the tin. Meanwhile the law of perverse consequences has chased away the non-woke consumers too. Sheer marketing genius by both AB and the US armed forces.
Surprised that this article left me with sense of of optimism. It seems if push comes to shove in the culture war, the military will side with the right while the left will have virtually no martial capabilities. Could be a Franco-tier turkey shoot.
Hi, I'm doing my grad school research paper on the Army's recruiting crisis and I am finding this invaluable. Can I speak to you offline with a few questions? (I also want to see if I can get your contact information for proper attribution and citations)
Thanks for the excellent breakdown of data on the topic!
There’s only one factor I can think of that you didn’t address, and that’s personnel retention. I think you’re right that the people most likely to join the military (conservative, rural white males) aren’t very aware of various “woke” policies and practices being implemented and so aren’t dissuaded, but that changes drastically when they actually join. A patriotic young man who shows up for basic training expecting an intensely masculine training environment only to be met with scolding lectures on “white privilege”, “toxic masculinity” and pronoun policing may be fall less likely to stick around beyond the minimum commitment, especially if it becomes clear that promotions are also being manipulated by DEI policies.
This problem compounds with experience, as individuals who have been in for 10+ years (NCOs, Field-Grade officers) have to decide whether to do a full 20 year career or cut their losses early. If they do leave, even in small absolute numbers, it takes many years and a much larger pool of young recruits to replace them and leads to an even more dire recruitment situation. Anecdotally, this could be a growing problem and would seem to be underway as a result of the disgraceful handling of Afghanistan, DEI ideology, and overbearing COVID policies combined.
Thank you for the incredibly thoughtful feedback!
I agree with you 100% about the retention problems. This needs to be a part of any discussion of recruitment. I should have added a least a paragraph on this. Thanks for adding it here!
Actually, when I initially started working on this I was imagining a post that evaluated the effect of the Pentagon's "woke" DEI policies on three separate dimensions: recruitment, retention and readiness. I was going to present the argument that "wokeness" likely matters for #2 and #3 but not for #1 (at least not yet). The whole thing became too long so I stopped with the recruitment question but I plan to pick up the retention and readiness questions again soon.
Any future analysis of these problems will also have to account for the fact that a significant percentage of new recruits come from military families. If active duty servicemembers become disaffected with the military, they may advise their children to stay away from the military. "Wokeness" is one factor (and you point out many other factors as well) that may lead current servicemembers to feel this kind of disaffection. To give you just one piece of evidence, in 2021, 65% of military teens (i.e. teenagers from families where at least one parents is currently serving) said they wanted to serve (https://www.militaryfamily.org/wp-content/uploads/The-Military-Teen-Experience-Report-2021.pdf). In 2022, that number was only 44% (https://www.militaryfamily.org/wp-content/uploads/NMFA-2022-A-Snapshot-of-Americas-Military.pdf). Obviously, there's much more to discuss here.
Thanks again for the comment!
Good comment. I wrote my comment before having read your comment. We basically said the same thing, although I'm partial to your version.
A tremendously insightful article. The idea that beliefs, and how they manifest, impact recruitment is helpful, but on a more basic level, I think the military career is fundamentally at odds with many of the younger generations preferences (work life balance, family, pay-Pew Studies & Moskos (1977) institutional vs occupational models and his work “The Professional Soldier”).
The class distinction (wealth / education) comes to mind in the early draft era policies that largely targeted those who were of lower class wealth and education. I wonder if what we are seeing is another manifestation (thinking economic class and voting patterns = https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting-counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the-nations-political-economic-divide/)
I find this topic very fascinating as it is a manifestation of America and includes both American government and international relations considerations.
Thanks for writing / sharing.
The military's WOKE policies have just kicked into high gear with the election of Biden and thus may take a while to show up in the data. But anecdotally, as one who lives in the deep south, each and every current or former military person that I have conversed with has mentioned the DEI policies in a negative light, as in being one of the major reasons why they would never ever join the military if they had it to do over again, and why they would not recommend the military for any white person. These conversations lead me to believe that the military's problems have just begun.
This is not dissimilar to AB attempting to recruit more woke customers who have moved to craft beers anyway and wouldn't come back to a mass produced beer no matter how pretty the transitioned person on the tin. Meanwhile the law of perverse consequences has chased away the non-woke consumers too. Sheer marketing genius by both AB and the US armed forces.
The data seem entirely
Surprised that this article left me with sense of of optimism. It seems if push comes to shove in the culture war, the military will side with the right while the left will have virtually no martial capabilities. Could be a Franco-tier turkey shoot.
Hi, I'm doing my grad school research paper on the Army's recruiting crisis and I am finding this invaluable. Can I speak to you offline with a few questions? (I also want to see if I can get your contact information for proper attribution and citations)